2024 NFL DRAFT: PREDICTION, ODDS FOR PACKERS’ LIKELY FIRST-ROUND PICK

When you’re attempting to predict what teams will do in the NFL Draft, there are a handful of variables to consider.

Team needs, draft class positional depth and franchise draft history should all be weighed when targeting a bet on the NFL Draft.

In the case of the Green Bay Packers, those three main buckets are all pointing toward them selecting a cornerback on Thursday night in the first round. 

Cornerback high on Packers’ needs list

It’s safe to say the Eric Stokes experience is wearing thin in America’s Dairyland.

After a promising rookie campaign in which he broke up 14 passes, the Georgia product has failed to register a single PBU over the last two seasons.

Ankle and hamstring injuries have plagued Stokes, and when he was able to get on the field last fall, it wasn’t pretty (51.5 PFF grade).

The Packers finished 27th overall in defensive DVOA, and opposing quarterbacks enjoyed a 94.7 rating against Joe Barry’s defense (25th).

Barry was fired following Green Bay’s defensive collapse in a divisional playoff loss to the 49ers and replaced by Boston College head coach Jeff Hafley.

What we know about the Packers’ new defensive coordinator is that he prefers press-man coverage out of his cornerbacks.

He has one corner, Jaire Alexander, who can do that, but he’ll need another and this draft who can provide him with that piece to his defensive puzzle. 

Positional depth lacking in secondary

The Packers have been linked to offensive tackles in mock drafts for months, but there’s a high likelihood that the top five tackles are off the board by the time they’re on the clock at Pick No. 25.

University of Arizona’s Jordan Morgan, Houston’s Patrick Paul and BYU’s Kingsley Suamataia could all conceivable be available in the second round should Green Bay put off its tackle pick by one round.

While a run on first-round tackles feels likely, there should be a handful of quality corners available at the end of the first round.

At the very least, one corner should be available if the Packers want to pull the trigger, be it Iowa’s Cooper DeJean, Clemson’s Nate Wiggins or Alabama’s Kool-Aid McKinstry.

Franchise history points in one direction

Packers General Manager Brian Gutekunst has demonstrated in previous drafts his willingness to select defensive backs in the first round.

Since taking over as the GM in 2018, he’s grabbed a corner or safety in the first round three times: Jaire Alexander in 2018, Darnell Savage in 2019 and Stokes in 2021)

He’s also gone on the record confirming that both he and his front office value measurables highly, specifically the Relative Athletic Score (RAS).

That’s meaningful for this draft because Wiggins and DeJean tested incredibly well.

Wiggins blazed a 4.28-second 40-yard dash at the combine in Indianapolis and was somehow even faster on tape.

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During a game against North Carolina last year, the Clemson corner hit a max speed of 22.6 mph, according to Reel Analytics.

Not only would he have gotten a speeding ticket in a school zone, but his time was faster than any player in the NFL during the entire 2023-’24 season, according to NextGen stats.

Then there’s Cooper DeJean, who showed out at his pro day. The unanimous All-American clocked a 4.43 in the 40-yard dash, had a 38.5 vertical, and posted an eye-popping 10-4 broad jump.

Had those figures been at the combine, his RAS would have been 9.89 (out of 10), making him the 28th most “athletic” cornerback tested since 1987.

In short, these guys are the kind of athletes Gutekunst covets. 

Recommendation: Packers to select CB (+260, FanDuel)

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2024-04-24T17:18:19Z dg43tfdfdgfd