2024 MOCK DRAFT: CAN THE GIANTS GET A QUARTERBACK AND A RECEIVER?
The 2024 NFL Draft is almost here, and with it the newest crop of New York Giants.
Ed has been doing a great job of presenting scenarios each week leading up to the draft as a way of examining the myriad ways in which the draft could play out.
One scenario that’s intrigued me is the idea of coming away from the draft with a quarterback as well as a top wide receiver.
However, I think there’s a very real possibility that neither Bo Nix nor Michael Penix Jr. makes it past the Las Vegas Raiders at 15th overall. So if the Giants want to come away with a quarterback, they’re going to have to make that pick in the top half of the first round. I could be very wrong about this, but I don’t think it’s terribly realistic to trade back into the first round for a quarterback.
With that in mind, I decided to trade down with the Minnesota Vikings and target Oregon QB Bo Nix. Nix is the fifth quarterback on our 2024 Big Board, but I personally believe that he’s much closer to Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, and J.J. McCarthy than many give him credit.
Trading down is a risk because it opens the door for the Broncos and Raiders to jump me. I don’t advocate getting cute when navigating the draft board, but in this case it worked out. I had to give up a future second to make the trade work, but I don’t think I would have had to do so to get it done in real life, so we can ignore that for now.
Raptor’s thoughts
Round 1
11th overall - Bo Nix (QB, Oregon)
The consensus is going to say that this is far too early to take Nix. However, I have a few reasons for making this pick.
Everything I have seen on tape and in the stats with regards to Nix suggest that he’s going to be a good NFL quarterback. He finished first or second in each of our predictive stats that tend to correlate with performance in the NFL.
He’s historically accurate, and his accuracy is durable. Nix wasn’t just accurate in rhythm from a clean pocket, but also on the move to his left and right, and was also accurate under pressure and got more accurate in each of the last five seasons. He’s a quick processor and decision maker who doesn’t put the ball in danger. He also doesn’t put himself in danger and has one of the best sack and pressure-to-sack rates in college football.
His tape shows a player with a compact, repeatable throwing motion. He’s athletic enough to extend the play as well as pick up yardage on his own. He has more-than-adequate arm strength, as evidenced by a ball velocity at the Combine that was 3 mph greater than Justin Herbert’s.
And speaking of Herbert, much has been made of the prevalence of short passes in Oregon’s offense. Nix’s average depth of target was only about 6.5 yards downfield, and that’s one of the biggest blemishes on his profile. However, Herbert only averaged a 7.7 and 8.0 yards per attempt in a similar offense in 2018 and 2019. Nix, meanwhile averaged 8.8 and 9.5 yards per attempt in 2022 and 2023. While he didn’t attempt as many deep passes as the other quarterbacks, he was still efficient when he was asked to make those throws. Nix was third in completion rate on deep passes (behind Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams) and second behind Daniels in on-target rate on passes of 20+ yards downfield.
So he’s a quarterback who’s accurate and efficient, doesn’t put himself or the offense in danger, and is capable of producing big plays when the opportunity arises. He’s older, but he’s also comes with experience and evidence of year-over-year development.
Nix probably doesn’t have the upside of Maye or McCarthy, or even Daniels, and that’s why he’s available. But he also has a lot going for him that could give him a high ceiling as well as a high floor.
23rd overall - Troy Franklin (WR, Oregon)
Turning to my second first-round pick, I was torn between Georgia wide receiver Ladd McConkey and ranklin.
McConkey’s athletic profile is almost note-for-note identical to Garrett Wilson, and McConkey also caught everything in the same zip code as him. Franklin, meanwhile, brings 4.4 speed along with subtle, savvy, and sophisticated route running — but his hands aren’t as reliable. I opted to keep the Oregon Connection going, and Franklin is a very good receiver in his own right. His raw stats compare well to Marvin Harrison Jr, and he actually had the second most yards per target against man coverage among the top receivers. The hope is that keeping Nix and Franklin together would aid both their development and acclimation to the NFL.
Pairing Franklin with Slayton and Hyatt would give the Giants a trio of 6-foot speedsters who can all take the top off the defense or carry the ball in YAC situations — not to mention Wan’Dale Robinson who is developing nicely in the slot. The Giants wouldn’t have the classic “X” receiver they’ve lacked since 2008. However, I would also point to the Dolphins, 49ers, Rams, and Lions as examples of schemes that are successful and don’t require a traditional assortment of receivers.
Day 2
47th overall - Braden Fiske (DT, FSU)
I thought about grabbing a cornerback like T.J. Tampa here, but the value with Fiske is too great and Shane Bowen tends to run his scheme from the front back. Fiske is explosively athletic and was a disruptive force at FSU the last two seasons. Fiske was taken off the field in short yardage situations, but the Giants have plenty of big guys to take care of that.
I feel like this is a bit of a luxury pick because I’m higher on D.J. Davidson and Jordon Riley than most seem to be. However, pairing Dexter Lawrence with Fiske was too good of an opportunity to pass up, and the quartet of Kayvon Thibodeux, Brian Burns, Braden Fiske, and Dexter Lawrence is probably the best defensive line in the NFL. That makes life much easier for the Back 7.
70th overall - Javon Bullard, S, Georgia
Again, I was really hoping for a cornerback here, but both Cam Hart and Khyree Jackson were off the board. I was also looking at running backs Ray Davis and Audric Estime, but Bullard was sticking like a sore thumb among the available prospects.
Bullard is undersized, but he’s a very versatile DB who could play free safety or nickel corner depending on the down, distance, and package. He flies to the ball as a safety and arrives with bad intentions, while also having chops in coverage. That could allow the Giants to use Cor’Dale Flott, Trey Hawkins, or Darnay Holmes across from Deonte Banks at cornerback. Not ideal, but it could be workable given the upgrades up front.
Day 3
107th overall - Christian Mahogany (OG, Boston College)
Not gonna lie, I’m thrilled to land Mahogany here. The Giants have done a lot to shore up their offensive line, but Mahogany could step in and compete with Joshua Ezeudu immediately. He has size, athleticism, and play strength to play in any blocking scheme, as well as experience at both left and right guard.
Mahogany does need to continue to work on his leverage consistency, but he has a solid upside. I wouldn’t be upset with him in the third round, so this is great value as far as I’m concerned.
183rd overall - Beaux Limmer, OC, Arkansas
Can’t go wrong with offensive line depth, and Limmer could have starting upside in the right situation. He has experience at both guard and center, and is a good run blocker as well as a reliable pass protector.
The Giants’ offensive line depth evaporated like a puddle on a hot day last year, and even if Limmer doesn’t start, he gives peace of mind as well as a capable player in practice. Likewise, his versatility would allow the Giants to reinforce two spots on the line with a single player — that’s invaluable for roster construction. Like Ben Bredeson, Limmer might not be a player you necessarily want to start, but he probably isn’t a liability either. That’s pretty good for this late in the draft.
2024-04-24T12:09:08Z dg43tfdfdgfd